LEBANON DRAGGED INTO SYRIA CIVIL WAR

FROM THE - JOURNALS of Monte Friesner – Criminal & Intelligence Analyst and Consulaire for WANTED SA

~Contributed & Written by Kenneth Rijock ~

WILL ISRAELI ATTACK ON SYRIAN MISSILES BOUND FOR HEZBOLLAH AFFECT COUNTRY FOR FOR LEBANON ?

The Israeli Air Force has reportedly attacked a convoy traveling to Lebanon, inside Syria, believe to be transporting either surface-to-air missiles, or long-range missiles, destined for Hezbollah. This is not the first such attack, conducted by Israel, and within Syrian territory, to prevent Hezbollah from acquiring missiles that present a clear and danger to Israel, or its armed forces. It is undetermined whether the attack was launched from Lebanese airspace, but there was a huge amount of Israeli Air Force traffic in the region at the time, according to Lebanese sources. 

The question is whether this incident will further destabilise Lebanese internal politics, by provoking a domestic Lebanese reaction against Hezbollah, and its pro-regime role in Syria. Tempers remain extremely high amongst those political parties who see Hezbollah as dragging Lebanon into another conflict with Israel, and one in which war damage will not be limited to the Shiite-controlled south, but country-wide, including the downtown Beirut business and financial district, according to warnings issued by the Government of Israel.

For that reason, you may want to take another hard look at your assessment of Country Risk for Lebanon, and make adjustments accordingly.

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THE ISRAELI AIR FORCE HAS BOMBED A MUNITIONS CONVOY

RAISE COUNTRY RISK IN THE MIDDLE EAST ?

  Reliable reports from multiple sources have confirmed that the Israeli Air Force has bombed a munitions convoy, reportedly on the Syrian side of the Lebanese frontier, that was transporting surface-to-air missiles,  believed to be Russian SA-17s, on delivery from the Syrian Government, to Hezbollah.The reports say that several flights of IAF F-16 aircraft were involved, and Israel has stated that it will not allow such weapons to fall into Hezbollah control.

Syria whilst denying that such an attack took place, is accusing Israel of destroying a military installation in Jamraya, near Damascus. This may have been an air defence headquarters; Syria is claiming that it was a "military research centre", and that the complex was destroyed, with fatalities and injuries. 

Additionally, numerous Israeli aircraft were reported by Lebanon to have violated its airspace for an extended period of time, near the frontier. Iran has warned that it will consider an Israeli attack on Syria as an attack upon itself. Israel recently moved elements of its Iron Dome missile defence system to the north of the country.

 It is suggested, that if your clients have ongoing trade transactions in the region, or if your bank has any significant financial exposure, that you watch unfolding developments carefully.

~Contributed & Written by Kenneth Rijock ~