~ IRAQI COOPERATION WITH IRAN WILL APPROACH A LEVEL OF COUNTRY RISK ~

FROM THE - JOURNALS of Monte Friesner – Criminal & Intelligence Analyst and Consulaire for WANTED SA

~Contributed & Written by Kenneth Rijock ~

 YET ANOTHER INDICATOR FOR RAISING COUNTRY RISK ON IRAQ

Just when you think the country risk situation in Iraq could not get any worse, it does. An Iraqi Shiite fighter, killed in the Syrian civil war, was repatriated through Iran, and buried in Basra, as seen in the photograph above. Apparently there are a number of Iraqis engaged in Syria, in support of the Assad regime. The fact that Iran was involved in the return home of the body seems to confirm reports that it is coordinating the placement of foreign fighters in the Syrian civil war.

If Iraq continues to demonstrate its cooperating role with Iran, whether through permitting Iraqis to participate in the Syrian conflict, on the side of the regime, in assisting Iran to evade global sanctions, or by allowing arms to overfly Iraqi airspace, en route to Damascus, it will soon approach a level of Country Risk, in 2013, that will disqualify it for any foreign investment, or financial relationship that involves the extension of credit. If it draws any significant Iran sanctions violations, that will be the last straw.

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LEBANON DRAGGED INTO SYRIA CIVIL WAR

FROM THE - JOURNALS of Monte Friesner – Criminal & Intelligence Analyst and Consulaire for WANTED SA

~Contributed & Written by Kenneth Rijock ~

WILL ISRAELI ATTACK ON SYRIAN MISSILES BOUND FOR HEZBOLLAH AFFECT COUNTRY FOR FOR LEBANON ?

The Israeli Air Force has reportedly attacked a convoy traveling to Lebanon, inside Syria, believe to be transporting either surface-to-air missiles, or long-range missiles, destined for Hezbollah. This is not the first such attack, conducted by Israel, and within Syrian territory, to prevent Hezbollah from acquiring missiles that present a clear and danger to Israel, or its armed forces. It is undetermined whether the attack was launched from Lebanese airspace, but there was a huge amount of Israeli Air Force traffic in the region at the time, according to Lebanese sources. 

The question is whether this incident will further destabilise Lebanese internal politics, by provoking a domestic Lebanese reaction against Hezbollah, and its pro-regime role in Syria. Tempers remain extremely high amongst those political parties who see Hezbollah as dragging Lebanon into another conflict with Israel, and one in which war damage will not be limited to the Shiite-controlled south, but country-wide, including the downtown Beirut business and financial district, according to warnings issued by the Government of Israel.

For that reason, you may want to take another hard look at your assessment of Country Risk for Lebanon, and make adjustments accordingly.

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